When the Tide Goes Out, You Find Out Who’s Skinny-Dipping

Washington Post, House Democrats’ 2020 election autopsy: Bad polling hurt and GOP attacks worked

An attempt to diagnose—with a fair degree of precision—why Democrats didn’t do better in the 2022 House races. I found it very interesting. Takeaways—not all that surprising but useful anyway:

  1. A lot of Trump supporters refused to talk to pollsters. That led to a significant distortion in the polling. (Remember: victory or defeat is often the small difference between two large numbers.) That led Democrats to put their resources in the wrong places.
  2. Too many voters believed Republican bullshit about socialism and defund the police.
  3. Democrats had a lot of money, but they put too much in “old media.”

This from a Democratic political operative:

“We are still overweighted on old media, and we need to invest more in organizing and in digital. I would rather invest in the next Stacey Abrams or a real organizing strategy for the Rio Grande Valley,” Maloney said, referring to the Georgia political figure.

He said the biggest advantage for Democrats next year might just be Trump not being on the ballot, as the House GOP has so far remained fully in Trump’s corner.

“The Republican Party is betting the ranch that they can do Trump’s toxicity without Trump’s turnout. And I think that may end up being a terrible mistake,” he said. “There’s that old saying that when the tide goes out, you find out who’s skinny-dipping. And if this tide of Trump turnout goes out in 2022, the Republicans may end up skinny-dipping.”