Five Anomalous Political Factors—Each Unpredictable, and Each Likely to Interact with the Other Four Anomalous Factors in Unpredictable Ways
The Implosion of the Traditional Corporate/Racist Republican Coalition
See, for example, MSNBC, Republicans’ ‘woke capitalism’ has sent Marco Rubio and co. into panic mode.
Republican Efforts to Make it More Difficult and Onerous to Vote
Likely to backfire. Explained in excruciating, persuasive detail by David Frum.
The Painful Difficulty of Efficient Gerrymandering
Republicans will gerrymander like crazy. But, as with voter suppression, efficient gerrymandering is harder than you would think. Obviously, you want to cram as many Democrats as you can into Democratic districts. Then, with the rest of the districts, you want to spread your Republicans around—so there will just be just enough of them in each district to guarantee a Republic victory. But what happens when you mis-prognosticate how many voters will actually vote Republican?
For example, when the election becomes a referendum on who won the 2020 election AND only 60 percent of Republican voters are prepared to believe the Big Lie you are telling on the issue that you are promoting as the most important issue in the election? (More on that below.)
What happens in District X, which you think you have gerrymandered into a 55-45 Republican district, when fewer than 55 percent of “your” voters actually vote Republican?
What happens is that you have cleverly gerrymandered yourself out of winning District X.
The 2022 Election as a Referendum on Who Won the 2000 Election
Liz Chaney is about to be shitcanned out of House Republican leadership and then, next year, shitcanned in the Republican primary in Wyoming. Politico supplies the details.
In the 2022 Republican primaries, if a Liz Chaney-type person runs, she or he will go down to ignominious defeat. Two varieties of Republicans will run: (1) Republicans prepared to swear absolute fealty to the Big Lie, and (2) Republicans trying to weasel their way out of declaring, one way or the other, whether they support the Big Lie. Category (1) will mostly win; category (2) will mostly lose. In the general election, the Republican primary winners will insist on making the 2022 election a referendum on whether Biden or Trump won in 2020.
Republican identification has been shrinking. As we saw last year, polling percentages are unreliable, though polling is more useful in showing direction of movement. Polling data indicates that folks identifying as Republican or Republican leaning make up about 40 percent of the voting population. That’s the result of a recent Gallup poll.
Recently, Reuters/Ipsos asked Republicans, “To what extent to agree with the following statement: ‘The 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump.’? 38 percent strongly agreed. 22 percent somewhat agreed. 11 percent somewhat disagreed. 18 percent strongly disagreed. 10 percent professed not to know whether the Big Lie was in fact a lie or the truth.
In sum, the Republican Party wants to place all its eggs in a basket of Big Lie believers who make up 60 percent of 40 percent of voters. That would be 24 percent. Or probably a little more, ‘cause the pollsters can’t figure out how to get results from all of the dunderheads.
The Legal, Mental, and Physical Health of the Orange Man
Not guaranteed, by a long shot.