Dog Bites Man—Several Times

And I Don’t Mean Major Biden

Gallup.com, Quarterly Gap in Party Affiliation Largest Since 2012

Jennifer Rubin, Someone shrunk the GOP

Ms. Rubin has read the Gallup poll and has drawn some conclusions that are bleeding obvious. But bear in mind, if you please, that we tend to have trouble accepting conclusions that are bleeding obvious, if the conclusions describe a novel and unpleasant situation. Ms. Rubin writes,

The data contain a number of important implications for the media, the administration and both parties. First, when we hear 60 percent of Republicans believe something insane (e.g., that the election was stolen or that antifa was responsible for the Jan. 6 insurrection), understand that we are talking about a smaller universe of people. The hard-core crazies are still crazy, but others have moved on, making the GOP weaker.

Second, Republicans’ pandering to the MAGA base becomes politically untenable when there are fewer of them. The notion that Republicans can win by turning out this base in large numbers while turning off everyone else in the process does not make sense if the GOP percentage of the electorate shrinks. The math just does not work. …

Finally, House and Senate Republicans continue to oppose Biden’s uber-popular initiatives, engage in silly cultural memes, obsess over the amorphous cancel culture (even as they “cancel” Major League Baseball for taking its All-Star Game to Denver) and perpetuate the Big Lie that the election was stolen. They are leaders of a smaller army, acting as if they can survive with only the MAGA base on their side. This is a winning formula only if they can suppress the vote of non-MAGA voters. Hence, we see the frenzy to shrink the electorate to match the shrunken GOP ranks.

Biden seems ideally suited for a moment when the public embraces more government and a larger percentage of voters are fleeing the MAGA-saturated GOP. So long as he can deliver — a big question mark — and quiet the culture wars, he can set the foundation for a broad coalition that ranges all the way from the center-right to the progressive left.