You May Want to Have Several Cups of Coffee Before Reading this Post

That’s because this is some serious stuff.

Ronald Brownstein, The Decision That Will Define Democrats for a Decade: Will they get rid of the filibuster if it means passing their voting-rights and election-reform agenda?

Greg Sargent comments on, and amplifies, Brownstein’s views:

Greg Sargent, Democrats need to accept the implications of GOP radicalization

To begin at the beginning: (a) It is very hard to understand our present situation. (b) Prognosticating the present political situation into 2022 and 2024 is even harder. (c) In the recent past, Democratic leaders have often failed to understand what was driving the Republicans. And, in consequence, Democratic predictions of Republican behavior have often been wrong—often, 180 degrees wrong.

Very important points. Got ‘em. So, let’s move on from there.

Messrs. Brownstein and Sargent advance the thesis that it’s possible—given likely future Republican radicalization and given the oddities of our constitutional structure—that, going forward, a minority of 46 to 47 percent of the voters will be able to exercise effective dictatorship over the majority.

On that premise, they present some policy proposals and tactics to keep that from happening and to preserve democracy.

My Comments: A Return to Dystopianism?

I don’t want to comment on their policy proposals and political tactics. Those thoughts may well be sound. Nor do I want to summarize their reasoning. If you want to know their reasoning, you would do much better just to click the links and read for yourself.

Now, is it possible that the dystopian future they envision may come to pass? Yes, it is. In large part, because anything is possible.

But is it likely? I say no.

In the first place, because I don’t see a future Republican base of 46 to 47 percent of the country. I see a future Republican base of about 35 to 40 percent of the country. Yes, it’s true that, even without Trump in office and even without his tweets in their inboxes, the hard core of the Republican base is becoming crazier and crazier. But for every MAGA hatted person who agrees with Marjorie Taylor Greene that Jewish conspirators with space lasers caused California’s wildfires, there will be one or two previous Republican voters who will be appalled.

You might call it the ICK! factor.

And a closely related point: corporate America is turning decisively against the craziness. They may still love them some tax cuts, but not enough to secede from the coalition of the reality based.

And not enough to throw good money after bad, supporting unelectable characters like Shouty Shirt Gym Jordan. And, BTW, I think it’s no coincidence that Shouty Shirt Gym Jordan just announced that, no, he’s not going to try to succeed Rob Portman as senator from Ohio in 2022, I think the Republican big money crowd told Congressman Shouty Shirt to forget about it. Because the big money crowd didn’t get to be the big money crowd by constantly throwing good money after bad.