Fivethirtyeight, What All Those GOP Retirements Mean For The 2022 Senate Map
Thirty-four seats will be up for election or reelection in 2022. Of the 34 election contests,
14 Will Be Democratic Senators Running for Reelection in States that Voted for Biden
Three of these states—Arizona, Georgia, and New Hampshire—are of a purplish hue. But, at least in Arizona and Georgia, I think we may, with reasonable confidence, predict that Republican primary voters will nominate folks wearing tinfoil hats. In Georgia, for example, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-QAnon) will probably feel the call to higher public service. I don’t think the country club crowd will be enthused.
1 Will Be a Republican Senator Running for Reelection in a State that Voted for Biden
The senator would be Ron Johnson, who has been advised to stay away from blenders and other household appliances. The state would be Wisconsin, which voted for Biden by 0.8 percent.
1 Will Be an Open Seat Now Held by a Retiring Republican Senator in a State that Voted for Biden
The state is Pennsylvania, which went for Biden by a margin of 1.2 percent. I predict the Republican primary will be a bad day in Little China, as the Tinfoil Hat brigade shoots it out with the reality-based faction. The Tinfoil Hat folks will win the primary and go on to lose the election.
2 Will Be Open Seats Now Held by Retiring Republican Senators in States that Voted for Trump.
They are Ohio and North Carolina. In Ohio there will be another shootout in the OK Corral. Whichever side wins the primary will royally piss off the other branch of the state Republican Party.
In North Carolina the Republicans, taken as a whole, are a pretty wild and crazy lot. I think a Tinfoil Hatter will easily win the Republican primary but have the devil’s own time winning the general election.
The Remaining 16 Will Be Republicans Running for Reelection in States that Voted for Trump
John Thune of South Dakota is one, and the God Emperor has already painted a large target on his back. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska is in the same boat. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see those two joined by Roy Blunt of Missouri.